How will Russia react to the Israel-Iran conflict? | Conflict news

After Israel launched what he described as “preventive“The attacks on Iranian military and nuclear targets last week, the position of Russia seemed clear.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Moscow condemned what he called “military strikes not provoked against a sovereign Member State of the UN”, referring to Iran.

The Kremlin, of which partnership With Iran, many years ago, has urged a diplomatic solution to the crisis.

Since the start of hostilities on Friday, More than 220 people were killed in Israeli attacks against Iran while 24 people were killed in Iranian counterparts.

Iran and Russia shared an ally in former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad and intervened on behalf of the Syrian war until its possible defeat at the end of last year. Iran has provided Russia with Shahed Kamikaze drones to use on Ukrainian targets, and last year, there was reports That Russia has received hundreds of Fath-360 ballistic missiles from Iran, which are known to be exact in the short term.

“Of course, Russia should be friends with Iran because, in politics and in life, everything is very simple,” said the personality of Russian television Hawkish, Sergey Mardan, after the last crisis in the Middle East intensified. “If you have an enemy and your enemy has partners and allies, its partners and allies are automatically your enemies.

“There is no illusion on this subject, and there cannot be. Since Israel is a key ally of the United States; … of course, we are interested in the weakening of Israel and to help its adversaries. ”

Although Russia can be sympathetic to Iran, the extent of their relationship should not be overestimated, said independent specialist in the Middle East Ruslan Suleymanov, who is based in Bakou, Azerbaijan.

Russia now manufactures its own license Shahed drones, so its own combat capacities are unlikely to be affected by the Iran-Israel conflict, he said.

“The Iranians, in turn, expected Russia more. They expected a much larger quantity of planes, military, space technology, not to mention nuclear,” Suleymanov told Al Jazeera.

“But Russia has not rushed to share because it is very important for Moscow to maintain a balance in the Middle East and to maintain relations with Israel. And if Russia begins to provide weapons to Iran, no one excludes the fact that these weapons can be directed against Israel, and the Kremlin does not want this.”

Although a strategic partnership agreement was signed between Moscow and Tehran this year, Suleymanov noted that this does not mean that Russia is forced to intensify to defend Iran.

“It is obvious that in any vote of the United Nations Security Council, Russia, as well as China, will be held on the side of the Islamic Republic (Iran),” he said. “However, we must not expect anything more.”

While the liberal opposition focused on the West has been widely favorable to Israel, Russia traveled a fine line to maintain its links with the administration of President Benjamin Netanyahu.

“A monkey had his grenade removed. We are waiting for the other,” the Russian politician exiled respectively Dmitry Gudkov respectively referring to Iranian and Russian leaders.

“Does Israel (or any country, by the way) have the legal right to try to hit a nuclear grenade from the hands of a large monkey playing with him next door?” And who constantly growls in your direction? I think the answer is obvious. “

Russia’s relations with Israel are complicated.

Although the Soviet Union initially supported the creation of the State of Israel, it quickly threw its weight behind the Arab nations and supported the Palestinian cause.

Today, Russia refuses the black list of Hamas as a “terrorist organization” although its support for Palestine is balanced by its relationship with Israel. Israel, on the other hand, is interested in the security and survival of the Jewish community of Russia.

Regarding Syria, Russia and Israel have shared a understanding Where Moscow tacitly ignored Israeli operations targeting its ally, supported by Iran, Hezbollah. Israel, for its part, avoided annoying or sanctioning Moscow and armoring Ukraine. However, the collapse of the al-Assad regime has changed this calculation.

“Russia and Israel, on the whole, carry out different interests in Syria,” observed Alexey Malinin, founder of the Center for Interaction and Cooperation, based in Moscow, and member of the Digoria Expert Club.

“If Russia aimed to ensure the security of Syrian citizens, ensuring the stability of legitimate power, then Israel set itself the goal of protecting itself as much as possible from the potential threats of Syria, without paying attention to the legality and legitimacy of these decisions. busy The territory of Syria after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime. »»

“It was really important that Russia has contacts with Israel, being in Syria, because without interaction with such Aviv, it was very difficult to lead maneuvers on Syrian territory,” added Suleymanov. “But now such a need simply does not exist. Russia does not require any close coordination with (Israel).”

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Netanyahu have a friendly relationship in the past, even identified in a Ballet performance Together in 2016.

Russia the electric broker?

Some analysts believe that the Israeli-Iranian crisis offers Putin the opportunity to bend his diplomatic muscle.

“Vladimir Putin has already offered mediation, and Russia is objectively one of the platforms most open to compromises due to constructive relations with the two countries,” said Malinin.

However, Suleymanov said, the influence of the Kremlin on the Middle East has decreased since the change of power in Syria and his hands are already full.

“Russia itself needs intermediaries in Ukraine,” he said.

“The situation in the Middle East will not directly affect war in Ukraine. But for the Kremlin, it is undoubtedly beneficial that the attention of the world community, starting with the West, is now diverted from Ukraine. In this context, Putin can move on to a new offensive in Ukraine. ”

Malinin recognized that Western support in kyiv could drop in the short term “in favor of Israel”.

“But it is unlikely that in this context, we can talk about something serious and large.”