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In 2016, Great Britain was very little voted to leave the European Union, its nearest trading partner, in what criticisms called its worst self-inflicted blow in at least 70 years.
The independent office for budgetary liability calculates that Brexit will reduce long -term productivity – a lasting problem for the United Kingdom – by 4%, which results in around 32 billion pounds sterling ($ 43 billion) per year. Exports and imports will remain about 15% lower than those if Great Britain had remained in the EU. Some estimates suggest that European divorce costs more than 100 billion pounds Sterling ($ 134 billion) per year.
Ironically, immigration, whipped by Brexit activists as a reason to leave Europe, has increased considerably since the vote and reached a record of nearly a million of the year ending in June 2023.
Almost 60% of British now think that Brexit was a mistake, according to opinion polls. Many of those who voted to leave, seduced by nationalist promises to increase sovereignty, say they were lied and betrayed. Even some intellectual supporters previously passionate about leaving the EU believe that the agreement was a disaster because European bureaucrats were simply replaced by British bureaucrats.
But the impact of Brexit does not stop there, far from it. He provoked deep cultural and political divisions and restarted the electoral card, fueling the working class support for right -wing populist politicians, despite the fact that they were a leading force behind the now unpopular rupture with Europe.
Political instability
Brexit has also inaugurated an extraordinary political volatility period, strongly in contrast with the historic reputation of Great Britain as a solidly stable country.
This volatility can easily be demonstrated by examining the two general elections since the Brexit vote in 2016.
In 2019, the Conservative Party won its greatest victory in 30 years. Boris Johnson, a touched product from the British upper classes with a tenuous relationship with the truth but passionate political instincts, has become the party’s hero. The Brexit campaign was the main vehicle by which he won the party leadership.
Five years later, the party was completely crushed, suffering from its worst electoral defeat. Johnson, overturned the previous year by his own party after an extraordinary series of scandalous scandals, was one of the main architects of this debacle.
Since then, he has remained in the political desert, despite the ambitions sheltering his return as a Savior of his party, who, according to even personalities, could now go out after 200 years of history.
Conservative chaos
Johnson was followed as Prime Minister by continuous chaos. His successor, Liz Truss, landed the economy and was the shortest Prime Minister in British history. His successor, Rishi Sunak, underwent a series of political disasters and led a dull election campaign.
The leftist Labor Party, itself crushed in 2019, won power in a landslide in 2024, taking 412 seats in Parliament at the Conservatives 121. It seemed to have an unassailable majority.
But less than a year after having taken power, it seems much less sure. During the elections in May, he lost badly, authorizing 187 members of the councils who direct the local government across the country and losing a seat previously safe in the national parliament of the law in London, which went to the insurgent right -wing reform of Nigel Farage.
The reform won 677 local seats and the control of 10 councils as well as two mayors, mainly taking them from the Conservatives.
Although an election is not due before 2029, the recent opinion polls suggest that the frage reform could win the following vote, although it currently has only five parliamentary seats. Work holds around 24% of public support, compared to 30% for reform. The conservatives, under their fourth chief in three years, Kemi Badenoch, are in third place with around 17%.
First after the post
How did it all happen so quickly? There are several answers. One is rooted in the electoral system of the first step of Great Britain, sometimes called a winner, where anyone who obtains the most votes wins, even it is not a majority.
In this type of election, the number of seats won in Parliament does not necessarily reflect the proportion of the voted vote; The Labor Party has only won 34% of the votes and has always ended up with a parliamentary landslide.
In addition, the Government of Starmer has made several major mistakes, beating accusations that the former lawyer is a non -charismatic bureaucrat with questionable political skills, despite his ruthless campaign before the elections to move the Labor party to the center and thwart the fears of voters whether too left.
His government has had indisputable successes, especially in foreign policy where Starmer is considered a respected diplomatic operator who has skillfully won the confidence of US President Donald Trump, unlike some other European leaders. The two men signed a trade agreement this week to reduce Trump’s prices on British cars, aluminum, steel and aerospace. Starmer is also a constant supporter of Ukraine against Russia with other European powers.
But in his determination to balance books after inheriting what he said to be a hole of $ 30 billion in the economy, the government has made deeply unpopular and politically inept decisions.
By far, the most damaging of these elements was the decision to remove winter fuels subsidies for retirees, causing accusations that older and less rich people had to choose between heating and food.
Embarrassment
Starmer recently reversed this decision for everyone, except the richer retirees, in one of the embarrassing half-tours.
Many members of the Labor Party fear that it will be too late to reverse the loss of government support, especially since it has reported that it will not return to another deeply unpopular policy, reducing the advantages for disabled people.
Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor of the chessboard, otherwise known as the Minister of Finance, recently announced what the government hopes to be more popular measures, including a massive money injection into national health services, which now have stalls, and in defense.
The latter, reflected by movements in other European countries, is considered a necessity in the light of the uncertain support of Trump to Ukraine against Russia and his apparent desire to withdraw from military commitments towards the Nato Mutual Defense Alliance.
However, economists warn that the place of Reeves to maneuver in the financing of these policies is fragile, given the weakness of the economy. Its so-called tax head room would disappear if the economy does not revive, in particular given the possible shocks of the Israeli-Iranian conflict and the war in Ukraine. If this is the case, it would be forced to increase taxes or reduce other public services.
Flamboyant fading
Farage is standing on the sidelines of looking at these difficulties with Glee, a former private raw and educated trader and long -standing euros. In a way, he managed to call on the workers’ classes despite nothing in common with them, mainly by stirring the flames of xenophobia.
The flamboyant Farage is a gifted speaker and a political operator despite the fact that Parliament was elected in 2024. Some analysts think that he could become the next Prime Minister despite the tiny base he is currently holding in Parliament.
If a person is responsible for chaotic events of the last decade, it is the frage. The fear of the conservative party to lose voters to separate right was behind the decision of former Prime Minister David Cameron to call the referendum on Brexit. He was wrongly considered a way to suppress the rebellion of the internal party – until his own party forces him to resign.
The reaction of the party in Farage was to move further to the right, despite the advice of traditional great-conservatives who believe that it only loses votes in the crucial center. Conservative supporters, including elected members, defect the Farage Reform Party.
At the same time, Farage wins the support of traditional work voters in the so-called red wall in the midlands and north of England, who are worried about immigration and the increase in the cost of living.
This explains at least in part why the Prime Minister Starmer recently made an aggressive speech on the damage caused by excessive immigration which seemed to steal from the rhetoric of the right, dismaying many supporters of the work.
The key to defeating Farage – which may well be the official opposition instead of the Conservatives – is to improve the economy and control immigration. But neither can be considered a fact for the besieged Labor government.
However, an election is not expected before 2029 and as recent stories suggest, many things can happen in the meantime.
Questions to consider:
1. What was the impact of Brexit on the British economy?
2. Why does the conservative party continue to go to the right?
3. If you were Prime Minister of Great Britain, what would be your first priority?
