The Parliament of Iran supports the Strait of Hormuz blocking the Strait. Its closure alienated more Tehran

Iran may threaten the Strait of Hormuz, but the experts told CNBC that it was also the one who has the most to lose.

In a major decision after we hit the Iranian nuclear sites, the The country’s parliament on Sunday would have approved the closure of the Hormuz Strait, risking alienating its neighbors and its business partners.

The decision to close the navigable way now rests with the country’s national security council, and its possibility has increased the higher energy price spectrum and aggravated geopolitical tensions, with Washington calling Beijing To prevent the strait closed.

Vandana Hari, founder of the energy intelligence company Vanda Insights, told CNBC “Squawk Box Asia“That the possibility of closing remains” absolutely minimalist “.

If Iran blocks the Strait, the country is likely to transform its countries producing oil neighboring into enemies and risks hostilities with them, she said.

US Energy Information Administration data revealed that Iran had sent 1.5 million barrels per day via the Hormuz Strait in the first quarter of 2025.

In addition, a closure would also cause the Iranian market in Asia, in particular China, which represents the majority of Iranian oil exports.

“So, very, very little to achieve, and a lot of self-inflicted harm that Iran can do,” said Hari.

His point of view is supported by Andrew Bishop, senior partner and global political research manager at the Signum Global Advisors consulting firm.

Iran will not want to thwart China, he said, adding that the disruption of supplies “will also target” the own oil production, the country’s export infrastructure, and the regime “at a time when there are few reasons to doubt that we and Israelis resolve to be” happy “.

Clayton Seigle, main member of energy security and climate change at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that, as China is “very dependent” of the Gulf oil flows, not only Iran, “its national security would really value stabilization of the situation and a de -escalation allowing safe flows of oil and gas through the strait.”

According to the Joint maritime information center. “The ships associated with the United States have managed to pass the Strait of Hormuz without interruption, which is a positive sign for the immediate future.”

Impact of potential disturbances

The Hormuz Strait is the only maritime route in the Persian Gulf at the open ocean, and about 20% of the global oil transit in the navigable track. The US Energy Information Administration A describe It is the “most important oil transit point in the world”.

“Iran’s operations in Hormuz and the surrounding area are unlikely to be” all or nothing “- but are traveling along a sliding scale of a total disturbance to nothing,” said the bishop of Signum.

“The best strategy (for Iran) would be to shake up the Hormuz oil flows just enough to hurt the United States via an increased price movement, but not enough to cause an American major response against Iranian oil and export production,” he added.

On Sunday, Patrick de Haan, head of oil analysis in Gasbuddy, said in a position on X that the prices of pumps in the United States could increase to $ 3.35 to $ 3.50 per gallon in the coming days, compared to the national average of $ 3.139 for the week of June 16.

If Iran decided to close the Strait, it would most likely use small boats for a partial blockade or for a more complete solution, exploit the navigable track, according to David Roche, Stratège de Quantum Strategy.

In a Sunday note, S&P Global Commodity Insights wrote that any Iranian closure of the Strait would not only affect Iran’s own exports, but also those of neighboring Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar.

This would potentially remove more than 17 billion barrels in world markets and would affect regional refineries by causing shortages of raw materials, said the search firm. The disruption of the supply would have an impact on Asia and Europe as well as North America.

In addition to oil, natural gas flows could also be “seriously affected,” said S&P, with Qatar gas exports of around 77 million metric tonnes per year potentially unable to reach key markets in Asia and Europe.

Qatar LNG exports represent around 20% of the global LNG offer.

“The alternative food routes for oil and the gas in the Middle East are limited, the capacity of the pipeline insufficient to compensate for potential maritime disturbances through the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea,” added S&P.

THE Commonwealth Bank of Australia underlined that “there is a limited scope to bypass the Strait of Hormuz”. The pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have only a reverse capacity of 2.6 million barrels per day between them, while the Strait oversees the transport of around 20 million barrels of petroleum and oil products per day, the bank said in a note.

All these elements have an upward risk for energy prices, Goldman Sachs believing that the market is the price of a geopolitical risk premium of $ 12.

If oil crosses the Strait lowering 50% for a month, then had to stay 10% for an additional 11 months, Brent should “jump briefly” at a peak of around $ 110, Goldman said.

Brent Oil term contracts currently amount to $ 78.95 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate The term contracts were negotiated at $ 75.75.