Oil prices show mute while the world is waiting for the Iranian response to American strikes

The prices of the American reference oil were only marginally higher on Monday morning, a result which reflects investors who move in waiting mode while they take stock of Iran’s response to American strikes on its nuclear installations.

The gain of 0.2% in the future intermediate gross of West Texas, less than $ 74 per barrel, reflected a significant night withdraw The peak of almost 4% saw Sunday evening during the trade in term contracts on raw materials.

The stocks opened flat.

The current oil price has always been the highest since the end of January – but has only been slightly lower than the overall average observed since 2023. It would be equivalent to the fuel prices of around $ 3.30 the gallon, assuming that oil prices remain at these levels.

It would be a great hypothesis.

Wall Street analysts claim that by ordering strikes, President Donald Trump once again injected massive uncertainty in the markets after having already done so with his booming pricing ads.

“In our opinion there is a wide range of results for oil prices in the coming weeks,” said UBS Financial Group analysts in a note to customers. “The nature and extent of Iranian reprisals remain the key parameter.”

If the Iranian response remains silent, oil prices could actually fall back, analysts said.

But the American strikes have probably increased the risk of disruption of energy infrastructure in the Middle East, they wrote. If such a disruption should occur, oil prices would increase in the short term.

“Everyone, keeps oil prices. I look! You play directly in the hands of the enemy. Don’t do it!” Trump posted on social networks Monday morning.

The biggest objective remains that Iran limits or eliminates access to the Strait of Hormuz, a strangulation point in the Persian Gulf through which around a fifth of the world’s food for oil food. Iranian state media reported that The Parliament of Iran supported the closure The Strait – but that the final decision lies in the Iran National Security Council, according to the report. There was no word yet that such an order had been given.

UBS said it considered a disturbance of the Strait as a “low probability” at this stage. A report early in the morning that six tankers had started to move away from the Strait was Updated just before 9 am to show that three of the ships had reversed the course and returned to the Strait.

“The Strait is essential for Iran’s own exports, because its terminal outside the Strait has only a limited capacity,” said analysts. “A closure would also have a significant negative impact for several other countries such as Qatar and China and would probably present a challenge for Iran.”

Analysts with Ing Financial Group described four possible avenues for Iran: a complete escalation which also attracts other countries such as China or Russia; Disturbance of the Hormuz Strait; Active or passive support for terrorist attacks in the United States and Europe; or taking no measure at all.

“We will refrain from speculating on the next steps and concluding in place that the most likely economic consequences of American strikes will be on general uncertainty and on the price of oil,” wrote Ing analysts.