The 12-day War of Israel-Iran is really over-and who won what? | Donald Trump News

Since Sunday, the Middle East has gone from the climbing of war to the fragile ceasefire. A truce seems to hold, and what American president Donald Trump called “the 12 -day war” between Israel and Iran seems to be finished – for the moment.

Meanwhile, Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian leaders all said that the break in the conflict was performing in their conditions.

So what is the truth? What has Israel achieved? Has Iran managed to defend its strategic assets? And is the truce a path to peace?

How did the events go?

Late Saturday evening, at the request of Israel, the United States entered the Israeli-Iranian war with strikes on Iranian nuclear installations in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, the “erased” them, in Trump’s words.

On Monday, Iran retaliated, pulling missiles in the largest American air base in the Middle East, Al Udeid in Qatar.

It seemed that the Middle East was ready for a wider and longer war.

But in a few hours, Asset Announced on Truth Social, its social media platform, “it was fully agreed and between Israel and Iran that there will be a complete and total ceasefire.”

Trump called it “the 12-day war … which could have continued for years and destroy the Middle East”.

Four hours After the ceasefire was supposed to take effect, Israel launched a strike against Iran in retaliation for what he said to be two ballistic missiles entering his airspace, launched from Iran. The two were intercepted. Israel’s reprisals destroyed a radar station near Tehran.

Trump was furious. “I am really unhappy that Israel was released this morning,” he told journalists.

“We have two countries that have been fighting so hard and for so long, that they don’t know what they are doing.”

Iran said he had not drawn these missiles. At 11:30 a.m. GMT, the ceasefire was back in force. Trump spoke to Netanyahu.

“Israel will not attack Iran. All planes will turn around and go home, while making a friendly “plane wave” to Iran. No one will be injured, the ceasefire is in force! ” Trump wrote on social truth.

What has Israel achieved?

Israel has long said that Iran is its number one existential threat, but that it had never struck the nuclear installations in Tehran.

On June 13, he crossed this red line, bombing the surface installations of the Natanz Fuel enrichment factory and the Isfahan nuclear technological complex. Iran retaliated by launching drones and missiles in Israel.

Israel had already struck nuclear installations in Syria and Iraq, but he has now proven that it can carry out a complex mission much further.

He also resisted international accusations that his mission was not legal. Israel says it was an early self -defense, but not everyone should develop a nuclear bomb, or that it planned to use it against Israel.

“I speak with world leaders and they are very impressed by our determination and the achievements of our forces”, ” Netanyahu said June 18.

Finally, Israel has proven that he could convince the United States to enter a limited offensive of the Middle East that she began. In previous wars in 1967 and 1973, the United States had provided material support to Israel when it was attacked, but had not helped it with direct operational involvement.

Netanyahu thanked Trump for “standing by our side”.

Operation Rising Lion against Iran took place following conflicts that Israel led against the regional allies of Iran – the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hamas and Hezbollah have been weakened in the past two years.

Has Iran managed to defend its nuclear program?

Israel has managed to considerably damage surface targets in Iran, and the United States claimed to have destroyed underground nuclear installations.

But while satellite photography shows that their missiles have reached their brand, there is no independent confirmation available to check what has been destroyed. This will require inspections on site.

“Currently, nobody – including the AIEA – is able to have fully evaluated underground damage in Fordow,” said Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations Watchdog Nuclear Watchdog on Monday after the United States. “Given the explosive payload used and the nature extremely sensitive to centrifugal vibrations, very significant damage should have taken place,” he said.

It is also not known where there are 400 kilograms (880 pounds) of highly enriched uranium that the IAEA said that Iran has now.

Mohammad eslamiThe head of the Iranian atomic energy organization, suggested that the nuclear program would emerge unscathed. “Restoration preparations had already been planned and our plan is to prevent any interruption in production or services,” he said in a state agency of Mehr on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the confusion persists on the source of two ballistic missiles that struck Israel on Tuesday morning, half past three after the start of the ceasefire. The Iranian government has officially denied having launched the missiles.

So who did? And were they accidentally dismissed – like the Iranian missile which accidentally killed a Ukrainian passenger plane in 2021, killing 176 people?

What is the probability of another strike on Iran?

What Israel and Iran have accepted is a cease-fire. They did not make peace.

On the Iranian nuclear program, experts say that there are – in general – two possible future ways.

The UN renewed inspections of Iranian nuclear installations and a new treaty with Iran, perhaps resembling a complete joint action plan of former American president Barack Obama, could help Tehran relieve the global pressure on his program, although Trump was withdrawn from the JCPOA, not Iran.

This is where the European powers can play a role. Three of them, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, met the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi On June 20, with the head of foreign policy of the European Union, Kaja Kallas, in order to avoid American strikes. This offer failed, but although the EU cannot in itself exploit Iran in a compromise, it can act as a counterpoint to the American-Israeli hard power.

“Iran will try to involve Europeans diplomatically by proposing improved surveillance and commitments in its nuclear program,” Ioannis Kotoulas, geopolitics lecture at the University of Athens, told Al Jazeera.

“The United States could accept a peaceful nuclear program-(US Secretary of State Marco) Rubio has already said it. The probability is that the United States will not try to force the regime change,” he said. “Europe is now the only solution in Iran. Russia is not reliable. “

But Israel previously attempted to know any nuclear agreement between the West and Iran, and it is unlikely that you will accept a new agreement.

And will Iran even be open to a compromise, after the United States withdrew from its previous nuclear agreement with Tehran, then changed his posts during the recent talks and finally joined Israel in the observation of Iranian nuclear installations when they were supposed to negotiate an agreement?

“It really depends on the dynamics in the country and how all climbing is formulated, but there have already been calls to stop the enrichment of activists in the country,” Al Jazeera Ali Ansari, Iranian history professor at St Andrews University, told Al Jazeera.

Until now, Iran seems adamant in the continuation of its nuclear program.

On Monday, the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Committee approved a bill for the pressure of the complete suspension of Tehran’s cooperation with the AIEA if it is approved during a plenary session.

Meanwhile, Trump underlined on Tuesday on social networks that it would not allow Iran’s nuclear program to resume.

If this fundamental tension remains intact, another series of strikes and countertwritings that suck the United States could only be a matter of time.