Can Iran really close the Hormuz Strait? | News Israel-Iran Conflict

In the midst of Israel Current attacks In Gaza and Iran, the unprecedented decision of American president Donald Trump of Bombing three Iranian nuclear sites Deepened fears of a regional conflict in the Middle East.

During the weekend, the American army has produced its first strikes known against Iran since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 overthrew the pro-Western Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.

Tehran has sworn to answer, which aroused fears of climbing.

During a speech to a meeting of the Islamic Cooperation Organization (OIC) in Istanbul, Turkiye on Sunday, the Iranian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, said that the United States had crossed “a very great red line” by attacking Iran’s nuclear installations.

Iran could retaliate is to close the Hormuz Strait, a vital commercial route where a fifth of the world’s oil supply – around 20 million barrels – and a large part of its liquefied gas, is shipped every day. This would cause an increase in energy prices.

So what do we know about the strategic passage, and can Iran allow itself to block it in response to the American and Israeli aggression?

What is the Hormuz Strait?

The Hormuz Strait is between Oman and the United Arab Emirates on one side and Iran on the other. It connects the Persian Gulf with the Oman Gulf and the Oman Sea beyond.

It measures 33 km (21 miles) wide at its narrowest point, with the 3 km shipping route (2 miles) wide in both directions, which makes it vulnerable to the attack.

Energy merchants have been on high alert since Israel launched a wave of surprise attacks across Iran on June 13, fearing that oil and gas disturbances are crossing the strait.

While the United States and Israel have targeted key parties from Iranian energy infrastructure, there has been no direct disruption of maritime activity in the region so far.

However, even before the United States was hit on Saturday, the climbing of the conflict between Israel and Iran had sparked ocean freight rates to increase in recent weeks.

The freight intelligence company, Xeneta, said that the average ad hoc rates increased by 55% per month, until last Friday.

Who would need to approve the closure?

Iran has in the past threatened to close the Hormuz Strait, but has never followed the threat.

The Supreme National Security Council of Iran must make the final decision to close the Strait, said television from the Iranian press on Sunday, after Parliament has supported the measure.

However, the decision to close the Strait is not yet final, because Parliament has not ratified a bill to this end.

Instead, a deputy for the National Security Commission of Parliament, Esmail Kosari, was cited in the Iranian media saying: “For the moment, (Parliament A) to the conclusion that we should close the Strait of Hormuz, but the final decision in this regard is the responsibility of the National Security Council.”

Asked about Si Tehran would close the navigable path, FM Araghchi dodged the question on Sunday and answered: “A variety of options are available for Iran.”

In his first comments since the United States hits, the supreme chief of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said That Israel has made a “serious mistake” and “must be punished”, but has made no specific reference to Washington or to the Hormuz Strait.

How would closure work in practice?

Iran could try to place mines through the Hormuz Strait.

The country’s army or the paramilitary body of the Islamic Revolution (IRGC) can also try to strike or grasp ships in the Gulf, a method they have used several times in the past.

During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, the two parties engaged in the so-called “oil wars” in the Persian Gulf. Iraq has targeted Iranian ships and Iran attacked commercial ships, including Saudi and Kuwaitian oilmen and even ships of the US Navy.

The tensions of the Strait broke out again at the end of 2007 in a series of skirmishes between the Iranian and American navies. This included an incident where Iranian speedboats approached American warships, although no shot was fired.

In April 2023, Iranian troops seized The Sweet Crude Tanker advantage, which was chartered by Chevron, in the Gulf of Oman. The ship was released more than a year later.

What would that mean for the global economy?

On Sunday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on China to encourage Iran not to close the Hormuz Strait after Washington has shot on Iranian nuclear sites.

Addressing Fox News, Rubio said: “It is an economic suicide for them if they do it (close the Strait). And we keep options to face it, but other countries should also examine this.

To begin with, the closing of Hormuz risks bringing the Arab States of the Gulf – which were very critical of the Israeli attack – in the war to protect their own commercial interests.

The strait closed would also strike China.

The second world economy buys almost 90% of Iranian oil exports (around 1.6 million barrels per day), which are subject to international sanctions.

According to Goldman Sachs, a blocking from the Hormuz Strait could push the oil prices over $ 100 per barrel. This would increase the cost of production, possibly affecting consumer prices – especially for products with high energy intensity such as food, clothing and chemicals.

Important oil countries around the world could undergo higher inflation and slower economic growth if the conflict persists, which could encourage central banks to push the calendar of future rate drops.

But history has shown that serious disruption of global oil supplies have tended to be short -lived.

Before the start of the Second Gulf War, between March and May 2003, crude oil jumped 46% at the end of 2002. But prices quickly took place in the days preceding the start of the military campaign led by the United States.

Similarly, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022 sparked a net oil prices rally at $ 130 per barrel, but prices returned to their level of pre-invasion of $ 95 in mid-August.

These relatively rapid inversions of petroleum price peaks were largely due to the global spare production capacity available at the time, and to the fact that the fast price increases braking demand.