Can Putin influence economic offers in Alaska? | Donald Trump News

US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin should meet in Anchorage, Alaska, Friday in order to try to end Russia Three -year assault against Ukraine.

In the perspective of the meeting, Trump said he thought Putin was ready to accept a ceasefire. But his suggestion that Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could “divide things” alarm Observers in Kyiv.

For their part, the remarks of senior Russian officials suggest that Moscow has tried to water discussions on war by linking them with other bilateral problems, in particular the restoration of economic ties with the United States.

Putin spoke on Thursday with senior Kremlin officials to discuss the Alaska meeting. He said That he believed that the United States made “sincere efforts to stop fighting, put an end to the crisis and conclude agreements of interest to all the parties involved in this conflict”.

Earlier Thursday, Yuri Ushakov, one of Putin’s best foreign policy aid, Russia preparations for talks. He said he was “obvious to everyone that the central subject will be the regulations for the Ukraine crisis”.

“An exchange of views is expected on the subsequent development of bilateral cooperation, including in the commercial and economic sphere,” he said, stressing that: “I would like to note that this cooperation has enormous and unfortunately unexploited potential.”

Ushakov also announced that, in addition to the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, the delegation of Russia in Alaska would also include the Minister of Finance of the country, Anton Soluanov, and Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s envoy on foreign investment and economic cooperation.

The inclusion of Silianov and Dmitriev is another sign that the Kremlin hoped to discuss economic issues at the top.

What does Russia-US trade look like?

In 2021, before Ukraine’s full-fledged invasion by Russia, total trade between Russia and the United States went to $ 36.1 billion. This included $ 6.4 billion in US exports to Russia and $ 29.7 billion in US imports from Russia – amounting to an American trade deficit of $ 23.3 billion.

For the context, Russia was the 30th American trade partner in 2021. Since then, after numerous cycles of American sanctions, trade between Russia and the United States has dropped by around 90%.

By the way, the global trade balance of Russia – leaving the United States – has decreased considerably following its decision to invade Ukraine. From 2022 to 2023, its international balance of payment dropped by 70%, just $ 86.3 billion.

But in 2021, Russia’s commercial surplus with the United States was concentrated almost exclusively in basic products. Oil, minerals and basic metals such as iron and steel represented around 75% of Russia exports. Meanwhile, American exports to Russia have been concentrated in manufactured products.

Was Russian exports vital American?

The short answer is no.

As Russia has invaded Ukraine in February 2022the United States – whose energy sector has been transformed by hydraulic fracturing And horizontal drilling in the early 2000s – was already the largest oil producer in the world, in 11.9 million oil barrels per day.

An area where Russia has a limited meaning was in certain types of energy products. Russia has provided certain notes of crude oil – in particular onions – as well as refined products such as vacuum gas (VGO), residual fuel oil and naphtha.

The Russian VGO was particularly important to make petrol and diesel products in American refineries, which lacked enough domestic raw materials with optimal chemical and physical properties.

Elsewhere, the United States continues to import limited quantities of uranium hexafluoride, an important chemical in the treatment of uranium, Russia. Some American public service companies still have supply contracts with Russia, which represented about a third of the enriched needs enriched in American when the war broke out.

As with energy products, however, American companies exposed to Russian uranium supplies have readjusted their supply chains in response to sanctions. In addition, American companies such as X-Energy and Orano have invested massively in domestic production in recent years.

Does Russia have another lever effect?

In the wake of sanctions after February 2022, most of the Russian raw material shipments were reacted from Western countries to China at reduced prices, including for energy and uranium products.

Indeed, trade between China and Russia has increased in parallel with sanctions against Russia. A common border, shared geopolitical perspectives and joint opposition in the United States have deepened bilateral relations.

The trade in Russia-China experienced annual growth of almost 30% in 2022 and 2023, when it reached 240.1 billion dollars, according to the Center for European Policy Analysis. In 2024, Russia climbed in 7th place among Chinese business partners, against 13th place in 2020.

Meanwhile, China has provided Russia to Russia with higher -end products – such as advanced electronics and industrial machines – while Moscow has solidified its position as the leading supplier of petroleum and gas to Beijing.

In addition, the two countries perform regular naval exercises and strategic bombers together. The United States has constantly expressed its concerns about joint military exercises and consider Chinese-Russia alignment as a threat to its role as world leadership.

Putin will be aware of these dynamics before Friday’s meeting.

What could Putin offer Trump?

In March, Putin’s investment envoy – Kirill Dmitriev – said that Russia and the United States had started talks on rare land metal projects in Russia and that some American companies had already expressed their interest.

“Rare land metals are an important area for cooperation, and, of course, we have started discussions on various rare land metals and (other) projects in Russia,” Dmitriev told the Izvestia newspaper.

China Almost total global control During the production of critical minerals – used in everything, from defense equipment to consumer electronics – concentrated Washington’s attention on the development of its own supplies.

The US Geological Survey estimates Russian reserves of rare land metals at 3.8 million tonnes, but Moscow has much higher estimates.

According to the Ministry of Natural Resources, Russia has reserves of 15 rare land metals totaling 28.7 million tonnes in January 2023.

But even taking into account the margin of error, suspended from the potential supplies of rare land of Russia, it would always represent only a tiny fraction of world stocks.

As such, the United States continued Democratic Republic of Congo And Ukraine In recent months, in order to combat control of the China’s global supply chain.

He can try to do the same with Russia.

What does Russia want from these meetings want?

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Western countries imposed 21 692 Sanctions against Russia, mainly against individuals.

Key sanctions on Moscow include importation Prohibit Russian oilA Russian fuel price ceilingand freezing of assets of the Russian central bank held in European financial institutions.

But on July 14, Trump threatened to impose supposedly secondary sanctionsThat if it was made, would mark a notable change.

Since then, he has targeted India – the second largest Russian oil buyer – dubbing a 25% rate on its goods at 50%, as a penalty for this business with Moscow. So far, Trump has not imposed secondary rates similar to China, the largest consumer of Russian oil.

But he suggested that Beijing could face such prices in the future, as the United States tries to put pressure on countries to stop buying Russian crude, and thus of Putin corner to accept a ceasefire.

Trump administration members also said that if Trump-Putin talks in Alaska do not go well, India prices could be even more increased.

Meanwhile, the legislators of the two American political parties are pressure for a bill – the sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 – which would also target countries buying Russian oil and gas.

The bill would give Trump the power to impose prices of 500% on any country that helps Russia. American senators will wait OK from Trump to advance the bill.

In Alaska, Putin should demand that Western sanctions against Russia be relaxed in exchange for Moscow accepting any peace agreement.