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The three largest European nations of the population, Germany, France and the United Kingdom, Talks held The Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi in Geneva, Switzerland on Friday, with the aim of avoiding prolonged war in the Middle East.
US President Donald Trump, who said he would decide within two weeks Join the assault on Tehran, denounced talks with European leaders as a failure.
“Iran does not want to speak to Europe. They want to speak to us. Europe will not be able to help it in it,” he told journalists.
Araghchi had declared that Iran did not associate talks in Geneva to negotiate anyway, only to listen.
However, he added: “There is no room for negotiations with the United States (no longer) until the Israeli aggression stops” because Iran and Israel have exchanged loves of missiles and drones.
The United States has been the main ally and supporter of Israel in all its wars, and is the only country with major military assets deployed in the region, which could change the course of the war.
Why do Europeans get involved?
Germany, France and the United Kingdom – called E3 in the context of talks in Iran – helped negotiate a 2015 treaty with Iran.
The 2015 Treaty, the Complete Complete Action Plan (JCPOA), has seen Iran agree to develop only peaceful nuclear programs and to submit to independent surveillance. Russia, China and the United States have also helped negotiate it, just like the UN.
But Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA in May 2018, during his first mandate as president. E3 has tried to keep the treaty in life but failed. Iran abandoned him a year after the United States.
On Saturday, the EU High Commissioner with External Action, Kaja Kallas, who also attended talks on Friday, published a statement reaffirming “the commitment to Israel’s security” and “longtime concerns concerning Iran expansion of its nuclear program, which has no credible civil purpose, in violation of almost all the joint provisions of the Complete Plan (JCPOA).
But the War of Israel in Gaza divided the E3 on their approach in Israel, weakening European unity of foreign policy more, although everyone wishes to avoid another war against the doorstep of Europe.
How is E3 divided into their approach to Israel?
The positions of E3 on Israel diverged since the War of Israel in Gaza began in October 2023.
Germany has remained the most ardently pro-Israeli, refusing to criticize Israel for a blind bomb of civilians in Gaza and to stop funding in Unda, the United Nations agency helping Palestinian refugees, which Israel accuses of having helped Hamas.
Originally pro-Israeli, the United Kingdom changed its position somewhat after the Labor electoral victory last year. Earlier this month, the United Kingdom has joined four other countries in officially sanction The Minister of National Security of Israel, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and the Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich, for “incentive of violence” against the Palestinians in the West Bank and Occupied Gaza. Israel described the decision as “scandalous” and “unacceptable”.
France is even more skeptical of Israel. It was one of the four EU members who started calling a ceasefire in Gaza in April from last year. A The year laterOn April 9, French President Emmanuel Macron said he would officially recognize Palestine’s state in a few months, in part because “at some point, it will be right”, and in part to encourage Arab states to recognize Israel. France would have made lobbying other European nations to pack the plunge. Spain, Norway And Ireland officially recognized Palestine the following month.
What effect does E3 have with Iran or Israel?
These are the three largest economies in Europe, with a raw collective domestic product (GDP) of around 11 billions of dollars.
Two of them, France and the United Kingdom, have aircraft carriers and expeditionary forces that have deployed in the Middle East and North Africa regions. They are also nuclear powers.
In the end, however, none of these things is enough to influence Iran or Israel in matters of national security. The true value of E3 lies in their “acceptability” in Iran and Israel as mediators in good faith and their ability to work towards common objectives with the United States.
“Germany, France and the United Kingdom have tried to mediate for more than 20 years, and their approach has been softer than that of the United States,” George Tzogopoulos, lecturer in international relations at the European Institute of Europe, told Al Jazeera. “The same thing happens now. We have a war crisis, and these three prioritize diplomacy so that the conflict stops if possible and the negotiations restart. ”
Could the broker E3 an agreement between Iran and Israel?
It would be difficult, given their inability to resuscitate the JCPOA without the United States.
“The main reason (E3 failed with the JCPOA) is the conclusion, made both by the Trump administration, President Trump himself and the Israeli government that diplomacy cannot work in the case of Iran and, therefore, the role of the three has been sidelined,” said Tzogopoulos.
But it is also difficult for them to coordinate with the United States. Asset has now sidelined His own intelligence community to adopt the Israeli point of view that Iran is developing a bomb. Trump told journalists on Friday that its national director of intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, was “false” when she testified That Iran did not build a nuclear weapon and that the supreme chief of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had not reautorized the country’s suspended nuclear weapons program.
“If Israel has evidence that Iran rushes for a bomb, I think it must come out more publicly and share it, because no one else confirms this evaluation,” said Kelsey Davenport, director of non-proliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, a non-governmental organization based in the United States.
“If there is a certain coordination between the United States and the E3, we could be more optimistic, but for Europe, so that E3 acts independently, I would not bet my money on their potential success,” he said.
“Europeans have very low chances,” said Angelos Syrigos, professor of international law at Panteon University in Athens. “The only people who can intervene seriously are the Americans. But I don’t know if the Iranians are open to this.
Could the United Nations Security Council find a diplomatic solution?
No, say experts, because China, Russia and the United States do not agree on Israel and Iran.
“The Security Council will not find a solution to that,” said Syrigos. “The United States or Russia or China veto.
Russia has called on the United States not to attack Iran, due to the risk of destabilizing the region. But Russia also does not have the power to come with Iran, said Syrigos.
“At the moment, Russia is going to handle with the United States. It does not want to get involved. It is not power. So that transforms a necessity into a voluntary act,” he said.
“The logic of the war will guide diplomatic efforts at this stage, and we cannot know how the war will take place, nor the extent of damage to the Iranian nuclear program,” said Tzogopoulos.
