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Born and raised in Naples, Francesco is currently a master’s degree in “international relations” at the University of Naples “the Oriental”. He writes on post-Soviet space and European affairs and his passions are napoli, books and wine.
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Map of Moldova with transsintry (Source: clean work, Diwar file:Transnistria-map.svg. Under license under the Creative Commons Assignment-sharing in the same way 4.0 International license. No modification of the original image has been made)
The growing competition between the Russian Federation and the European Union, since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, is also obvious in neighboring countries, as Moldova. The Republic of Moldova has followed a European path since its independence in 1991, but in recent years it has become the main engine of its foreign policy, through the presidency of Maia Sandu and the stronger position of the pro-EU party (Action and Solidarity Party). Over the years, the position of Moldova has moved strongly to the direction of the European Union, leaving the Russian Federation behind.
But it does not happen all over the country. In fact, since 1992, Moldova has been divided into two halves, the separatist entity of Transnistria trying to legitimize as an autonomous government. The recent gas supply crisis Return the lights in the region, which is part of the multitude of “frozen conflicts” present in the post-Soviet space.
It is necessary to specify that, despite all the current news linked to the subject, cases like the following are not a novelty in Moldova. The importance of gas in the region is surely high, especially in a small state like Moldova, which faces a crisis of sovereignty and identity.
Due to a specific Soviet conformation, the left bank was the industrial nucleus of the state, with plants in Tiraspol, Bender and Dubaşari. On the contrary, the right bank (or Moldova itself) suffered from a lack of industrial infrastructure, while the main companies have undergone agricultural production. The economic division reflected, in the year of Glasnost, the “ethnic” or “national” division between the two parts of the country. On the one hand, there were the Moldovans, which tried to obtain more autonomy and, later, of independence. On the other hand, the people and the leaders of the left bank were eager to stay within the Soviet Union and to be subordinate to Moscow, because of the powerful ties they had.
In simple terms, this “labor and national division” constituted the roots of the conflict broke out in 1992, which had interrupted with a cease-fire contract Signed on July 25th Between the former (and the first) president of Moldava Mircea Snegur and the president of the Russian Federation Boris El’cin. Since then, there have been a lot of attempts and efforts to resolve what seemed to be a “frozen conflict”.
The cessation of gas supplies in 2025
Dubăsari gives in Transnetria, Moldova. Source: public domain, under the Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Dedication from the universal public domain.))
As previously indicated, the reductions in gas supplies by Gazprom (the Russian state gas company) in Moldova and Transnetria are not an extraordinary event. Over the past twenty years, Russia has developed a new threat to impose its positions in negotiations with other states to obtain what Russia has requested: the cessation of gas and oil supplies. Thanks to this approach, many countries have had difficulty covering electricity consumption. Transnistria and Moldova have already undergone a major energy crisis in 2006 due to a similar cut operated by Gazprom.
Admittedly, the last energy supply crisis had a heavier impact on a series of contingencies. The war in Ukraine explicitly showed the Russian intentions to reshape the European order, according to a Westphalian logic of influence spheres. In addition, the Russian presence in Transnetria since 1992 is a long and constant threat to the sovereignty of Moldova. In addition, the Moldova path through European integrations has established a new standard of responses from Chişinau, which was less inclined to find an agreement with Moscow.
The invasion of the Ukrainian and Russian forces in Transnetria
Since February 2022, questions have emerged concerning the stability and unity of Moldova as a state, due to the presence of the separatist region of Transnistria. What raised the most concern was the presence of what remained of the Soviets 14th The army, now under Russian command as a “peacekeeping force”. The reasons behind such a presence are understandable thanks to the need to keep the region unstable, in the hope and the desire to reshape the government of Chişinau, creating a Russian area of influence in the region. In addition, Transnistria welcomes one of the largest former Soviet armor, which helps Russia keep “boots on the ground” and to avoid retreat.
It is easy to understand that such The status quoIn addition to the war next to the Moldovan border, could generate more than concern about the geopolitical, but also economic and political perspectives. First, keeping an army in Transnis – made of people born and raised on the left bank to which Russian passports have been given – is a signal from Russia to try to maintain influence on a country which moves away from the Moscow orbit. Second, with the confrontation of a war in Ukraine, Moldova began to rethink its economic system, almost entirely dependent on Russian gas, supplied by Moldovagaz (belonging to Gazprom). It caused a strong change to the European Union and other states which could provide enough energy to maintain the plants of the active industry, the hot houses,, and the streets on.
The European Union and the path to the integration of Moldova
The return of war on a major ladder In Europe, has caused consequences in different areas and areas, accelerate processes and start others. The intentions of Moldova to reach the status of the candidate to join the European Union are one of these processes. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Moldova tried to reappear as an independent country, despite all the difficulties of a newly independent state. European integration has become, year after year, an important political symbol and a necessity in this direction, both for the population and the political establishment.
Despite some attempts to keep Moldova closer to Moscow during the governments of the Communist and Socialist parties (even if they have implemented the Association Agreement In 2014, signed with the EU), the pro-Europe party not President Maia Sandu increased in consensus. The pools have suggested that the Molddds, in particular those who lived in urban areas, were more vivid to increase cooperation and continue integration with the European Union. This trend was confirmed in October 20, 2024, a constitutional referendum also.
Cooperation with the European Union has led to a change in Moldova foreign policy, in particular in its position towards Russia and its energy supplies. Since 2023, Moldova has no longer buys Russian gas, which has been delivered by Transnistria. In Tiraspol, this was perceived as a threat to its stability, even deciding to call Russia to obtain aid against what the Transndistrian authorities apparently called a “genocide”. Even if it is the official support for separatists, Russia has not responded to the request.
What has happened in recent months is remarkable. We must notice that after Russia, Russia decided in December 2024 to stop Russian gas Supplies via Ukraine – And this means that any gas supply would also have been stopped in Transnetria – and the lack of coverage of electricity consumption by the Transndistrian government, Moldova has acquired a political force.
During his stay in Tiraspol, there were intentional breakdowns, in Chişinau, People have continued to live their lives without any problem. After almost a month, February 1St, The Moldové Energocom state energy company began to deliver gas to the separatist entity for 20 million euros. In addition, this achievement was acquired after numerous refusals from the Transndistrian government to similar proposals in January.
Conclusions
The recent gas supply crisis in Moldova and Transnistria ended with changes in relative power gains between Moldova (and the EU) and Russia. The Transnistria suffers from a constant lack of support from Moscow, when it knows more integration with Moldova. On the other bank of the river, Moldova is conceived in the international community as an assertive actor capable of dealing with major problems, such as the status of gas food could be.
If, in the past, Moldova had suffered, the new approach to foreign policy adopted since 2020 with the presidency of Maia Sandu has led the country to internal stability, an increasing collaboration between itself and the EU, and a gain in power against the transistria.
Other questions:
- Will Moldova increase its cooperation with the European Union?
- Is Transnistria a longer threat to Moldova?
- How does Russia lose power and influence in the region?
Suggested readings:
- King, C. (1999). Moldovans: Romania, Russia and culture policy. HOOVER INSTITUTION PRESS
- Aslanli, K. (2024). Russian foreign energy policy. Truck
- Katchanovski, I. (2006). Pays de lunte. Divisions and regional political cultures in post-Soviet and Moldova Ukraine. Ibidem Press
