“Important step”: Russia -Ukraine speaks to Turkiye – what to expect | Conflict news

On Thursday, Russia and Ukraine are on talks in Turkiye, even if the prospects of President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyyyy Meeting directly For the first time in three years, he was wiped out by the Kremlin late Wednesday.

President Donald Trump, who had previously indicated that he could join the negotiations, would not participate either, according to American officials.

Here is what we know about talks, which encouraged them, which expected to assist and why the negotiations are important:

Why are talks held?

Sunday, Putin proposed the idea Direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Turkiye, instead of the cycles of indirect talks that the United States and others have tried to mediate between the neighbors at war. Putin referred to the direct talks that took place in 2022 while presenting their recovery.

“It was not Russia that interrupted negotiations in 2022. It was kyiv. However, we propose that Kyiv resumes direct negotiations without any prior condition,” said Putin on Sunday.

In February 2022, Russia launched its large -scale invasion of Ukraine. Shortly after, Russia and Ukraine had talks in the Turkish capital, Istanbul.

According to Zelenskyy, talks collapsed because Russia demanded that Ukraine conceded the Donbas region, which extends over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine – which Russia occupied during its invasion. Zelenskyy added that Russia wanted Ukraine to abandon long -range weapons, bringing constitutional amendments to declare neutrality and considerably reduce its armed forces. “There was never any negotiations; he was an ultimatum of a murderer,” said Zelenskyy at the time.

While Zelenskyy had previously concluded that any peace agreement would force Russia to abandon the Ukrainian territory that it had occupied, in December of last year, Zelenskyy said The “hot phase” of war could end if NATO offered security guarantees for the role of Ukraine currently under the control of kyiv.

He added that the return of land that Russia has occupied could be diplomatically negotiated later.

“The pressure that the United States has exerted to try to put an end to the fighting in Ukraine has evolved over time,” said a member of the main council at Chatham House Think Tank, based in London told Al Jazeera. “It seems that the most recent elements of this development, in particular in terms of European solidarity with Ukraine, have led Russia to engage in direct talks.”

Putin’s recent push for talks one day after the four main European allies in Ukraine gave Putin an ultimatum to accept a ceasefire or a 30-day unconditional discharge. This ultimatum came after the leaders of European countries, France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Poland, visited kyiv.

They gave Putin a deadline until May 12. On Sunday, May 11, Putin – without engaging in a ceasefire – said: “We have committed to serious negotiations with Ukraine. Their goal is to eliminate the deep causes of the conflict, to establish long -term lasting peace for historical perspective. ”

Where are they detained?

The talks take place in the Turkish city of Istanbul, which rides the border between Asia and Europe.

What role did Trump play in this area?

The four European leaders – Keir Starmer British, Emmanuel Macron of France, Friedrich Merz in Germany and Donald Tusk of Poland – said they had informed Trump of their ultimatum in Russia for a telephone call and suggested that he was on board.

But after Putin called for direct talks between kyiv and Moscow, Trump published a statement on his social platform for truth asking Ukraine to meet Russia “immediately”.

Trump carried out his campaign for the 2024 elections on the promise of quickly ending the Ukraine War. The Trump administration has held several meetings, from February, with Russian and Ukrainian representatives separately in Saudi Arabia in attempts to negotiate an agreement.

Also in April, the Trump administration said it was taking a step back from security guarantees in Ukraine. The Trump administration said it wanted Europe to take the lead to support Ukraine’s defense instead, noting that the United States had other priorities, including border security.

In recent weeks, however, Trump and his team, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have expressed growing frustration in the face of significant lack of progress in negotiations and have threatened to get out of efforts to mediate.

Explaining its insistence that Ukraine joins the talks in Istanbul on May 15, Trump argued: “At least, they will be able to determine whether an agreement is possible or not, and if it is not the case, European leaders and the United States will know where everything is and can proceed!”

Who will be there?

“I supported President Trump with the idea of ​​direct talks with Putin. I openly expressed my desire to meet me. I will be in Turkiye. I hope the Russians will not escape from the meeting,” said Zelenskyy in a post X on Monday.

Tuesday, Zelenskyy announced that he would be in Ankara on Thursday, where he will meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Translections with Russia, however, are supposed to stand in Istanbul.

Trump said he would send Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and the special envoy for Ukraine and Kellogg Russia to attend talks in Istanbul.

On Wednesday evening, Russia announced its team for the meeting. Vladimir Medinsky, a relative assistant from Putin and former Minister of Culture who also led previous cycles of unsuccessful talks with Ukraine in 2022, will lead the Moscow team. With him will be the defense vice-minister Alexander Fomin and the director of the main intelligence department, Igor Kostyukov.

Trump’s previous offer to attend the talks itself was welcomed by Kyiv. “We all in Ukraine will appreciate it if President Trump could be there with us at this meeting in Turkiye. This is the good idea. We can change a lot,” said Zelenskyy.

However, late on Wednesday, US officials said Trump would not participate.

The American president is currently in the Middle East, where he spent Wednesday in Qatar, after visiting Saudi Arabia one day earlier. Trump will be at the United Arab Emirates on Thursday before returning to Washington.

What does the absence of Putin mean?

Zelenskyy had said earlier that he would be present at talks Only if Putin also assisted. “Putin is the one who determines everything in Russia, it is he who must resolve the war. It is his war. Consequently, negotiations should be with him,” said Zelenskyy in an article on X on Tuesday.

With Putin who is no longer ready to attend, it is not clear if Zelenskyy will personally participate in the talks or if he will let her team join the negotiations.

However, in many ways, Zelenskyy marked on Putin by throwing the glove and asking him to attend.

“Zelenskyy presented a challenge to Russia to show that it has a real interest; it belongs to Russia, whether it takes up this challenge or not,” said Giles.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva also had prompted To urge Putin to attend talks.

What is on the table?

It is difficult to predict what could be specifically discussed in Turkiye’s talks.

“It would be an imprudence to predict whether there will be a significant discussion, because the acceptable results for both are still distant,” said Giles. “Russia wants to neutralize Ukraine as an independent sovereign state, while Ukraine wants to survive.”

Currently, Ukraine has offered an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, while Russia insisted that a series of its requests is accepted before joining such a truce. Moscow said she wanted insurance on the monitoring mechanism of a ceasefire and a truce will not be used by Ukraine to rearm and mobilize more soldiers. Instead, Putin has announced a brief unilateral ceasefire in short in recent days that Ukraine says that Moscow has never joined.

“We do not exclude that, during these negotiations, it will be possible to agree on new truents, a new ceasefire and a real truce, which would be observed not only by Russia, but also by the Ukrainian side. (IT) would be the first step, I would repeat, to long-term lasting peace, and not to a computer in pursuit of the armed conflict,” said Puttin on Sunday.

To what extent are these discussions significant?

Giles said that if the talks occur, “they will be a significant step forward”.

He added: “Everything that has been called for peace talks (so far) has been nothing like this”, describing the two parallel discussions that the United States had with Russia and Ukraine.

On March 19, the United States, Ukraine and Russia announced a 30-day ceasefire On attacks on Russian and Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and on March 25, they agreed with a Black Sea DealInterrupting the military use of commercial ships and the use of force in the Black Sea. However, the two parties exchanged the blame for violating the terms of these agreements, which have now expired.