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While the ceasefire of Israel-Iran fell into force on Tuesday, all the fighters launched a plausible argument for the victory.
In the United States, President Donald Trump said that his diplomatic and military interventions were largely responsible for the fighting of fighting, while the leaders of Iran and Israel, each claimed to have obtained a decisive victory in a regional competition that dates back decades.
In Israel, however, the emerging story is that the end result of the conflict with Iran has solidified the position of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Only two weeks ago, Netanyahu had real troubles. The night before the order of the unilateral strike on the Némesis regional Iran, its coalition in power could only survive Thanks to a last minute agreement with dissident members. Public and political opinion had also seemed to have turned against his war against Gaza, and internationally, the allies of Israel began to protest against the blockade of the Palestinian enclave.
Now he can say that he has seriously weakened the most dangerous regional enemy in Israel, Iran, and he claims that his nuclear program has been destroyed and sent “in the sewers”.
Iranian threat
Supported by the increase in survey numbers and the feeling of having managed to face Iran, Netanyahu can, according to reports in Israel, to benefit politically and to call for pressure elections.
Having constituted the threat of Iran for three decades, and has repeatedly warned that the principle of his country was about to build a nuclear weapon despite the denial of Tehran, Netanyahu can now take advantage of being considered the man who ended this threat.
“Entire generations have grown in Israel with this fear of Iran,” said Israeli political scientist Or Goldberg. “There is a fundamental story that there is this crazy state which, without any logic or reason, wants to destroy us.”
“My eldest daughter is 22 years old now and has never known anything else,” said Goldberg. “Netanyahu now gets the merit of having confronted this.”
In a video statement published earlier in the day, the far -right minister of Israel, Bezalel Smotrich, framed the conflict in characteristic apocalyptic terms, saying to his social media disciples: “The State of Israel has defeated in the last twelve days of the Empire of Evil which threatened the world and souila the destruction of Israel.”
This argument is supported by a large part of the Israeli public – which has largely supported the right and far right parties in recent years.
“Netanyahu is stronger than ever,” an Israeli sounder and former political assistant from several high Israeli political figures, including Netanyahu, told Al Jazeera, including Netanyahu. “No one is going to drop him, no one will challenge him, not his opponents, not his detractors, nobody.”
“He showed that Israel can go a horseman alone. He retired, before American aid, then continued alone. Bennett, Lapid cannot contest this,” continued Barak, referring to two former Israeli Prime Ministers, to the right Naftali Bennett and the centrist Yair Lapid, who are both opponents to Netanyahu.
Not so rosy
However, the duration of the perceived victory of the Israeli Prime Minister is uncertain. The Iranian government and its governance of the Islamic Republic remain in place, even if Netanyahu has repeatedly called upon its overthrow. Netanyahu insinuated that the regime change was a possible result of the conflict between Israel and Iran, and Trump used the term in an article on social networks on Sunday, before clarifying on Monday that it was opposed to the change of diet because it could lead to “chaos”.
And despite the Israeli claims, it is too early to have a final response to the state of Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs. The first, despite the effective air defense systems of Israel, led to the death of at least 28 Israelis during the conflict, while Iran is likely to complete its nuclear program in secret in the future. The first intelligence assessments would have determined that the Iran’s nuclear calendar was delayed, but not destroyed.
And analysts have previously suggested For Al Jazeera, Iran is likely to accelerate its nuclear program, with side wrinkles in the Iranian regime, even more convinced of the need for a plausible deterrence against Israel.
“There are many unanswered questions there, as the quantity of uranium remains enriched, or even where it is, but, in the short term, it doesn’t matter whether it was destroyed or not,” Yossi Mekelberg, a main advice from Chatham House and the North Africa Program, in Al Jazeera advice. “Netanyahu and her allies in the White House will be able to run it. What matters to them is that Iran has been a real physical and psychological blow. ”
However, the duration of Netanyahu can survive alone, it remains far from some, added Mekelberg. “Each Houdini finally comes across a lock they cannot choose,” he said.
Netanyahu’s actions since the start of the War of Israel against Gaza in October 2023 undoubtedly weakened the position of his country in the long term. Israel’s international isolation has increased, with repulsion worldwide to the actions of the Israeli army in Gaza, where it killed more than 56,000 Palestinians. Netanyahu himself is wanted by the International Criminal Court for War Crimes, and South Africa has led a number of other countries to carry Israel before the International Court of Justice, accusing him of having carried out a genocide in Gaza.
The images of people killed, including thousands of children, and the total destruction of Gaza, have spread on social networks in particular, making a lot in the West against Israel. This has become particularly visible in the United States, where even on the right – traditionally a bastion of support for Israel – support for the country has become controversial.
And while Trump has shown himself a pro-Israeli president, the perception among many in his “America First” movement that Israel has led to the United States in a war against Iran led to anger and strong criticism of Israel from many of many Trump’s most eminent supporters.
Trump himself has publicly reprimanded Israel after the latter planned to launch a great attack on Iran after the cease-fire start on Tuesday. Finally, Israel only led a small symbolic attack, following what she said, a violation of the ceasefire by Iran-a person that Trump was clear did not justify an answer.
A certain indication of the fury that welcomed Netanyahu’s decision to mistreat the terms of Trump’s ceasefire was provided by the former chief strategist of Trump and ally Steve Bannon. Speaking on Tuesday on his War Room podcast, Bannon called Netanyahu as a “ball liar” and Israel a “protectorate”.
Seeming to address directly in Netanyahu, Bannon continued: “You have the gall – especially after what (Trump) did for you and the grief that he took here – you have the gal … When he said:` This is what I did, and I need you to be a partner, I need you to stay first ”, you lied to him. This is why he is furious ”.
Deal Gaza?
Although Israel can put the conflict with Iran behind him – for the moment – the war against Gaza continues, without any sign of Israel finding an alternative force in Hamas to govern the enclave, and no agreement to secure the release of Israeli captives still held on Palestinian territory.
This can put a key in all plans for Netanyahu to obtain another mandate as a short -term Prime Minister.
“I am not sure of the Snap elections,” said Aida Touma-Suleiman, a deputy representing the Hadash-Ta’al party.
“The polls are in favor of Netanyahu, but it is still not certain. I cannot see Netanyahu go to the ballot box with Gaza still underway,” she added, suggesting that the Prime Minister could wait for the summer prison of summer on July 26, when he would be freer to negotiate a kind of conclusion to the war on the enclave.
Based on Netanyahu’s attitude towards negotiations in the past 20 months, it is not clear that finding an agreement to end the war against Gaza is something he wants. Instead, any agreement should require a large push by Trump – if the American president wants to make one.
“I do not see how Netanyahu can reach any type of regulation in Gaza,” said Goldberg. “Everyone is waiting for Trump to act again … negotiations with Hamas can start again, but it will be Trump who imposes a kind of end on (war).”
