Surveys are tightening in the Canada elections

While the ballot day in Canada is looming on Monday, support for the two main parties began to converge in the polls, but the race seems to remain the Liberal Party to lose.

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party now leads the conservative party from 42% to 39% on average, according to The CBC survey trackerA decrease compared to the advance of almost seven percentage points that the Liberals had at the start of the campaign last month. Some polls show an even thinner advance, but the Liberal Party still seems ready to win, according to the pollsters.

“Due to the distribution of the vote nationwide, there is a little distortion, a bit like what you will see in the United States with the electoral college,” said Sébastien Dallaire, executive vice-president of eastern Canada to Leger, a large survey company.

But, he added, “even if the national vote should be linked, it would probably mean that the Liberals have gained more” seats in the House of Commons, allowing them to form a government and give Mr. Carney a complete mandate as Prime Minister.

Surveys could also underestimate national support for the Conservative Party, led by StoneBut it may not be enough to overcome the advantage of the liberals.

The Conservative Party won the popular vote In the last two elections, but has always lost the Liberals twice against the Liberals. Conservatives can be well questioned at the national level, but still fail because their support tends to be concentrated in a smaller number of parliamentary districts.

Conservatives have overwhelming support in the western provinces of Saskatchewan and Alberta, but this is equivalent to relatively few seats because their populations are lower than the more competitive provinces.

In the “first past” electoral system of the post “in Canada, in which the candidate who receives the most votes – but not necessarily a majority – wins, having a lower level of support in a higher number of districts is more advantageous.

The survey in Ontario and Quebec, which have more seats than the rest of the combined country, shows a much stronger liberal advantage. In Ontario, the Liberals have an advance of seven percentage points on average, while in Quebec, it is closer to 15 percentage points.

Only a few months ago, a liberal victory in the elections seemed extremely distant.

The Canadians had embittered Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his liberal party after a decade of power, and the curators had more than 20 percentage points in the ballot boxes.

But after President Trump launched a trade war against Canada and began to threaten the nation as an American “51st state”, public feeling began to turn. Once Mr. Carney replaced Mr. Trudeau at the head of the party in March, the reversal of fortune gained momentum while the voters considered Mr. Carney as the candidate most capable of taking Mr. Trump.

Beyond the horse race, the survey on the problems that Canadians are the most concerned to head towards the day of the ballot have changed, but that still suggests an advantage for Mr. Carney.

In recent weeks, surveys show that the emphasis on Mr. Trump has declined, while the economy and affordability have become more salient problems. In various polls, Mr. Carney and the Liberal Party had the advantage over American-Canadian relations.

But Mr. Carney, with his experience as head of central banks in Canada and Great Britain, is also well considered on economic issues: a plurality of Canadians in A recent Abacus data survey said the Liberal Party was best able to develop the economy.

At the start of the campaign, more Canadians said they were voting according to the party which, they said, would be best suited to Mr. Trump, according to Abacus data survey. In more recent surveys, the majority of Canadians say they are more interested in the fact that the party can make a change in the direction of the country.

But while a majority of voters who prioritize change promote conservatives, one in four still prefers the liberals, according to Abacus, although the party is in power in the last decade.

“It tells me that Mark Carney has done enough to report and comfort the voters that he is a sufficient change from Justin Trudeau,” said David Coletto, founder and managing director of Abacus Data. “The way he addresses both leadership and this campaign was sufficiently satisfactory for people who could otherwise want a change. It is, I think, why they keep their heads.”