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Islamabad, Pakistan – In January 2024, Pakistan and Iran have pulled missiles In the territory of the other in a brief military escalation between the neighbors.
However, 17 months later, after Israel attacked Iran with strikes on the nuclear installations of the latter and murdered several Iranian and nuclear scientific generals, Pakistan was quick to condemn Israeli action.
Islamabad described Israeli strikes as violations of Iran’s territorial sovereignty and called them “blatant provocations”.
“The international community and the United Nations are responsible for confirming international law, immediately ending this assault and holding the attacker responsible for its actions,” said the Pakistan Foreign Ministry in a statement June 13.
While the Israeli attacks against Iran and the Téhéran reprisal strikes enter their sixth day, the conflict of deepening arouses fears in Islamabad, affirm the analysts, rooted in its complex links with Tehran and the even greater discomfort in the perspective of the air influence of the Israeli army extending near the Pakistan border.
The human assessment of the Israeli-Iranian spiral conflict develops. Israel’s attacks on Iran have already left more than 220 deaths, with more than a thousand people injured. In retaliation, Iran has launched hundreds of missiles on Israeli territory, resulting in more than 20 deaths and significant material damage.
While Pakistan, which shares a border of 905 km (562 miles) with Iran via its southwest province of Balutchistan, expressed firm support in Tehran, it also closed five border crossings in Baloutchistan from June 15.
More than 500 Pakistani nationals, mainly pilgrims and students, have returned from Iran in recent days.
“Monday, 45 students who were pursuing diplomas in various Iranian institutions returned to Pakistan. Nearly 500 pilgrims returned via the Taftan border crossing,” said assistant commissioner in Taftan, Naeem Ahmed, in Al Jazeera.
Taftan is a neighboring Iran border town, located in the Chaghi district of Balutchistan, which is famous for its hills where Pakistan carried out its nuclear tests in 1998, as well as the Reko Diq and Saindak mines known for their gold and copper deposits.
At the heart of the decision to try to effectively seal the border is the concern of Pakistan for security in Balutchistan, which, in turn, is influenced by its links with Iran, say experts.
A complex story
Pakistan and Iran both accused of hosting armed groups responsible for cross -border attacks against their territories.
The most recent push occurred in January 2024, when Iran launched missile strikes In the province of Balutchistan in Pakistan, claiming targeting the separatist group Jaish al-Adl.
Pakistan retaliated within 24 hours, striking what it said was balout separatist hiding places inside Iranian territory.
The neighbors repaired after this brief escalation, and during the brief military conflict of Pakistan with India in May, Iran carefully avoided taking sides.
On Monday, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ishaq Dar on Monday, addressed the Parliament, stressing how Pakistan had spoken with Iran and suggesting that Islamabad was willing to play a diplomatic role to help to end the military hostilities between Iran and Israel.
“The Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs (Abbas Araghchi) told me that if Israel does not make another attack, they are ready to return to the negotiating table,” said Dar. “We have transmitted this message to other countries, that it is still time to stop Israel and bring Iran back to talks.”
The Minister of State inside Talal Chaudhry told Al Jazeera that other nations should do more to put pressure for a ceasefire.
“We think we play our role, but the world must also do its duty. Syria, Libya, Iraq-wars have devastated them. This has even led to the rise of the Islamic State (Isil). We hope that it is not repeated,” he added.
Fahd Humayun, assistant professor of political science at TUFTS University and research scholarship holder invited to Stanford, said that any Pakistani attempt to diplomatically push peace would be helped by the fact that the administration of President Donald Trump in the United States is also, at least, at least, to argue negotiations rather than war.
But Umer Karim, researcher of the Middle East at the University of Birmingham, suggested that for the whole public rhetoric, Pakistan would be prudent to grasp too deep in the conflict at a time when he tries to rebuild bridges with the United States, the ally closest to Israel.
“I doubt that Pakistan has the capacity or the will to mediate in this conflict, but he certainly wants it to end as soon as possible,” he said.
Balutchistan and safety problems
According to observers, Pakistan is the potential for fallout in Balutchistan, a province rich in resources but made. Rich in oil, gas, coal, gold and copper, Balutchistan is the largest province in Pakistan by region but the smallest per population, which houses around 15 million people.
Since 1947, Balutchistan has experienced at least five rebellion movements, the last beginning in the early 2000s. Rebel groups demanded a greater share of local resources or outright independence, which has caused decades of military repression.
The province also hosts the Gwadar Strategic Port, at the center of the Chinese-Pakistani economic corridor of $ 62 billion (CPEC), connecting Western China to the Oman Sea.
Baloch nationalists accuse the state of exploiting resources while neglecting local development, strengthening secessionist and separatist feelings. Balouthes secessionist groups on both sides of the border, in particular the Balutchistan Liberation Army (Bla) and the Balutchistan Liberation Front (Bla), have rebellion in Pakistan to seek independence.
“There is a major concern within Pakistan that, in the event that the war degenerates, members of armed groups such as Bla and BLF, many of whom live in the border areas of Iran, could try to seek protection within Pakistan by crossing the very porous limits shared by the two countries,” said Abdul Basit, a researcher Singapore, told Al Jazit.
“Thus, Pakistan had to close the passage to try to control the influx. It remains to be seen if they can do so successfully, but at least it is their objective.”
Worries about Afghanistan Redux
Since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, waves of Afghan refugees have requested shelter in Pakistan. The last mass entry occurred after the Taliban resumed Kabul in August 2021. At their peak, nearly 4 million Afghans lived in the country.
In 2023, however, Pakistan launched a campaign To return refugees to Afghanistan. According to government estimates, nearly one million of them have been expelled so far. Pakistan has cited the increase in incidents of armed violence in the country, which it blame on groups which, according to them, find shelter in Afghanistan, as a key justification for its decision. The Taliban reject the suggestion that they authorize the sanctuary of anti-Pakistan armed groups on Afghan territory.
Basit said that Pakistan would likely want to avoid any rehearsal of what happened with Afghan refugees.
“With such a long border (with Iran) and a history of deep connection between people of the two parties, it is not outside the field of possibility that it was this factor which took into account the decision of Pakistan to close the border,” he added.
Fears of Israeli air superiority
Baloch armed groups and the prospect of an influx of refugees are not the only concerns that probably worry Pakistan, say experts.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his air army was controlled by Tehran’s sky. And while Israel and Iran continue to strike the territory of the other, Pakistan, which does not recognize Israel and consider it as a sworn enemy, will not want Israeli influence on Iranian airspace to develop and slip towards the Iranian-Pakistani border.
“Pakistan is also opposed to that of Israel, reaching superiority and complete Iranian air control, because this would upset the current security status on the western flank of Pakistan,” said Karim, the scientist of the University of Birmingham, in Al Jazeera.
Break of the past
Security analyst Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud, based in Islamabad, noted that Pakistan has historically taken it on the United States in regional wars, including in Afghanistan, but can hesitate this time.
A majority Sunni nation, Pakistan still has a significant Shiite population – more than 15% of its population of 250 million.
“Pakistan has already dealt with sectarian questions, and openly support military action against (the Shiite majority), Iran could trigger a serious flower stroke,” he said.
