The Israeli-Iranian conflict has exposed the “limited lever” effect of China, says analysts | News Israel-Iran Conflict

Through the recent 12 days Israeli-Iran conflictChina quickly moved to position itself as a potential mediator and a voice of reason in the midst of a regional spiral crisis.

The day after Israel’s unreported attack on Iran on June 13, Beijing contacted the two parties to express his desire for a mediatized solution while the country’s first diplomat, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi, condemned Israel’s actions as a violation of international law.

Chinese President Xi Jinping quickly followed calls for de-escalation, while the United Nations Security Council, China joined Russia and Pakistan to ask for an “immediate and unconditional ceasefire”.

When Iran has threatened to block the strategically important strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes, Beijing also quickly spoke.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs rather called for the “international community to intensify efforts to defuse conflicts and prevent regional disorders from having a greater impact on global economic development”.

Beijing’s position throughout the conflict has remained faithful to its long -standing approach to foreign hostilities. But the experts say that he did not do much to help strengthen his ambition to become an influential actor in the Middle East, and rather exposed the limits of his influence in the region.

Why was China worried

Unlike some countries, and The United States in particularChina traditionally addresses foreign policy “through an objective of strategic pragmatism rather than ideological solidarity”, said Evangeline Cheng, research partner at the National Institute of Singapore in the Middle East.

This approach means that China will always focus on protecting its economic interests, many of which in the Middle East, Cheng told Al Jazeera.

China has investments in the native technological sector of Israel and its belt and road infrastructure project extends over Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

Above all, China is based on the Middle East for more than half of its imports of crude oil, and it is the largest consumer of Iranian oil. An prolonged war would have disrupted its oil supplies, as well as an Iranian blockage of the strategically important strait of Hormuz – something threatened by the Tehran Parliament during the conflict.

“The instability of the war and the security Mine not only the investment and the trade and the business and the affairs and the affairs … but also the price of oil and the energy security of the gas in general,” said Alam Saleh, lecturer in Iranian studies at the Australian National University.

“Consequently, China seeks stability, and it does not agree and is opposed to all kinds of military solution for any type of conflict and confrontations, whatever with whom,” he said.

John Gong, professor of economics at the Beijing International and Economic Affairs University, told Al Jazeera that the main concern of China thanks to the conflict was to avoid “fallowing oil prices” which would threaten its energy security.

Flee diplomatic muscle, protect the economy

Aware of China’s friendly relations with economic fears of Iran and Beijing, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Beijing to prevent Tehran from closing the Hormuz Strait while the cease-fire negotiations fell before this week.

It was a brief moment of recognition of Beijing’s influence, but experts say that the global diplomatic influence of China remains limited.

“China’s offer from Médier highlights its desire to be considered a responsible world player, but its real lever effect remains limited,” said Cheng. “Without military capacities or deep political influence in the region, and with Israel distrust of Beijing links with Iran, the role of China is necessarily limited.”

Certainly, Beijing has demonstrated its ability to negotiate major diplomatic agreements in the region. In 2023, he mediated the standardization of Relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Although considered a huge diplomatic victory for China, the experts say that Beijing owed much of its success to other mediators, Oman and Iraq. China has also publicized a Agreement between Palestinian factionsIncluding Hamas and Fatah, in July 2024, under which they undertook to work together on the governance of Gaza after the end of the in the course of Israel against the enclave.

But William Yang, principal analyst of Northeast Asia to the Brussels International Crisis Group, said the chances had been stacked against China since the start of the last conflict because of Israel’s distrust of his relationship with Iran.

In 2021, China and Iran signed a 25 -year “strategic partnership”, and Iran is an active participant in the Belt and Road project. Iran has also joined the Shanghai cooperation organization led by Beijing and this year participated in the naval exercises of the “maritime security belt” in China.

Iran’s “opposition resolved to Iran’s hegemony” also aligns well with the diplomatic interests of China, compared to the close ties of Israel with the United States, “said Yang.

Dilemma of China

This is a scenario that could be repeated in the future, he said.

“This case also strengthens the dilemma with which China is faced: although it wants to be considered a great power capable of mediation in the main world conflicts, its close relationship with specific parts in some of the current conflicts decreases Beijing’s ability to play such a role,” said Yang.

For the moment, Beijing will continue to count on the United States as a security guarantor in the region, he added.

“It is clear that China will continue to focus on deepening economic engagement with the Middle East countries while taking advantage of the American presence in the region, which remains the main security guarantor for regional countries,” said Yang.

“On the other hand, the participation of the United States in the conflict, in particular by changing the course of the war by bombing the Iranian nuclear sites, creates the condition that China takes up the moral in the diplomatic sphere and presents itself as the major power more limited, calm and responsible,” he said.