The next elections will not help stabilize Syria | Opinion

In early August, the Syrian Democratic Forces led by Kurds (SDF), heal fires with Syrian government forces near Manbij in northeast Syria in the Northern Syria. Northern tensions occurred only a few weeks after the blood in the southern governor of Southern Suwayda killed more than 1,400 people and moved nearly 175,000. The violence between the Druze and Sunni Bédouin groups continued for more than a week and has still not completely lowered.

In March, groups faithful to former President Bashar al-Assad clashed with government forces and allied armed factions in coastal governors of Latakia and Tartus, dominated by the Alawite community. From 1,400 to 1,700 people were killed In the bloodshed, most of them civilians; 128,500 people were moved.

Recurrent violence has exposed the gross sectarianism that Al-Assad once manipulated to maintain power. Now, in its absence, these divisions are metastasing, fueled by a decade of unresolved grievances, earthly disputes and the proliferation of armed groups.

President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who has taken power after the eviction of al-Assad, has so far failed to establish confidence in all factions, because his main objective has been international normalization and economic development. His Islamist trends are alarmed among the minorities, in particular the Druze, the Alawites, the Christians and the Kurds, who fear that his inability to slow down the various armed factions could lead to greater violence.

The September elections can offer procedural legitimacy to the government of Al-Sharaa, but without real security and reconciliation, they risk deepening the existing divisions and strengthening a power structure which benefits some selected at the expense of a truly unified nation.

International reconstruction and recognition

Since coming to power, Al-Sharaa has indicated that its national strategy has been massively focused on reconstruction and economic development. This is where his provisional government has concentrated its efforts.

In May, Al-Sharaa spoke during an event in the second largest city in the country, Aleppo, urging the Syrians to join the reconstruction effort. “Our war with the tyrants ended and our battle against poverty has started,” he said in his speech.

To unlock the country’s economic potential, Al-Sharaa sought to gain international recognition. With the help of the Gulf States, the Syrian President was able to achieve a major diplomatic victory: the lifting of the sanctions and the abolition of the armed group he directed, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, of the list of “foreign terrorist organizations” by the United States government.

The administration of the American president Donald Trump also supported the potential integration of the homeless person in the new security device. From Washington’s point of view, engaging with new authorities in Damascus can help reduce Iranian influence and prevent Syria from becoming a corridor for Hezbollah and other agents. From the point of view of Al-Sharaa, it is a chance to guarantee international recognition and legitimacy.

The Syrian neighbor, Turkiye is also an important player in Al-Sharaa’s national strategy. It provides non -COMBATT – training, advice and technical assistance military support – to help rebuild Syria’s security infrastructure. It also examines a major role in the reconstruction effort.

This month, Turkiye began to provide Syria natural gas, helping to fight against the country’s energy crisis in the North.

Meanwhile, the Gulf States undertook to invest massively in Syria to help stabilize its economy. In July, Saudi Arabia announced $ 6.4 billion in investments in real estate and infrastructure projects. Two weeks later, the Syrian government signed agreements worth $ 14 billion with Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and other countries in the fields of public transport and real estate.

However, many criticisms would say that if economic support is essential for reconstruction, it cannot alone guarantee stability. The danger is that money and development can explain the deeply anchored feelings and divisions that could rekindle future conflicts. The real challenge for the new Syrian government is to find a way to balance the urgent need for economic recovery with the equally crucial need to meet people’s grievances.

Legislative elections

One way to fight against tensions is to gain public confidence thanks to a democratic electoral process. Al-Sharaa called for national elections in September, but ordinary Syrians will not be able to vote. Indeed, 140 of the 210 seats will be chosen by the local electoral committees while 70 will be appointed directly by the president. There will be no seats filled with a popular vote.

This format is a simple political calculation. It provides the new management with the insurance of a controlled result and avoids the challenges of organizing a national vote at a time when Damascus has no total control of all territories and security cannot be guaranteed.

But this electoral process is likely to be welcomed by the distrust of certain Syrians, in particular minority communities, because they will see it as promoting the Sunni majority. Some may choose to boycott the elections, declare them illegitimate or find alternative means to express their deep dissatisfaction with a system that refuses them a significant voice.

The United States and the European Union will carefully monitor the elections and probably adopt a critical position if it will not be able to establish a truly inclusive and representative parliament. This will probably complicate the budding international relations of the new regime and will hinder its efforts to acquire complete recognition and support.

The most urgent problem for Damascus will be that the elections will not help to cure the country’s deep wounds at a time of continuous sectarian tensions. This is why Syria needs a process of reconciliation at the national level.

Justice and responsibility

The interim government of Syria has not yet articulated a convincing vision of justice and responsibility. War crimes under al -Assad – which include mass detentions, torture and chemical attacks – remain unanswered. There have been promises to hold people responsible for sectarian massacres, but no concrete measure has been taken.

The absence of responsibility is not only a moral failure. It’s strategic. Without a legal framework to hold the responsible authors, the injuries in Syria sank.

Syria needs a new social contract, and people will no longer tolerate the old foundations of impunity that define the past regime.

The justice and responsibility process must be impartial and transparent. Given the deeply anchored sectarian divisions and decades of a single-family rule by the al-Assad regime, which has largely brought to the Alaouite minority, the new government cannot be the only arbiter of justice. A state -led national process could easily be accused of being a form of remuneration against a particular sect or those associated with the old regime. To counter this perception and ensure equity, Syria would greatly benefit from the assistance of the international community, in particular of the United Nations.

An entity like the South African Commission for Truth and Reconciliation (TRC) could be a powerful tool. Instead of focusing only on punishment, a TRC would favor the discovery of the truth about past crimes, including mass killings, torture and embezzlement.

This process could help Syria move away from a only punitive justice system that is serving rather than reconciling. It could help the new regime to strengthen public confidence and establish a new social contract based on shared vision rather than competing accounts. This could also help to alleviate requests for federalism, which are likely to weaken the country and undermine its security, stability and economic development.

Syria’s transition was never going to be easy. But the current trajectory – economic development undermined by potential sectarian fragmentation and militarized policy – the risks transforming after Syria into Syria into a faulty state.

The international community can play an essential role, but its approach must evolve beyond simply applauding the procedural stages. He must support civil society and demand responsibility for past and present crimes. Otherwise, the future of Syria will look like it with its past with new leaders but the same old cycles of violence and instability.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.