Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
While the United States is entering its hottest months of the year, fire managers and scientists say they are preparing for a forest activity to accelerate.
While the American fire season generally takes place from the end of spring to early fall, experts say that the most intense fires tend to break out in months like July and August, when temperatures are high and the vegetation is dried.
California has become emblematic of the scope and intensity of these forest fires. The western state collected 8,110 shadows in 2024 only – more than any other part of the country.
Last week, the Gallagher Re insurance company find That two flames this year in the Los Angeles region – Eaton and Palisades fires – were responsible for almost $ 40 billion in losses assured alone. It is estimated that 30 people died in these fires.
This assessment has put California in the reticle of a debate on a national scale on the best way to manage forest fires and state and federal roles.
Earlier this month, on the occasion of the six-month anniversary of the Deadly Infernos, the American senator Alex Padilla called on the federal government to invest more in the preparation for fire, rather than retreating, as President Donald Trump suggested.
“We are entering the next peak season. The fire season is all year round in California, but the advanced season is just beginning,” said Padilla.
He pointed out that the conflagrations of Los Angeles had sparked the relatively sweet month in January: “These fires took place in winter, not in the hot summer months of the summer.”
It is, according to experts, an indication of the potential scale of California forest fires, even in less than ideal circumstances.
Potential for a “fairly serious” season
Scientists say that California forest fires have been fairly moderate so far this year, but they should reproduce as summer progresses in August, especially in certain parts of the state that have fought with drought in recent months.
“We have had a number of small fires, but nothing too surprising so far,” said Max Moritz, specialist in forest fires at the University of California in Santa Barbara (UCSB), in Al Jazeera during a recent telephone call.
“But it is in a way where we expect to be at this stage of the season. And we have seen certain factors that indicate what could be a fairly severe shooting season when we enter the drier months.”
Scientists quickly emphasize that forest fire seasons can be affected by a variety of factors and are difficult to foresee.
Events associated with forest fires, such as periods of violent winds, extreme heat or lightning storms, are themselves mercurial. Acts of human error or negligence, such as a shot down or properly extinguishing electricity line, can also define a landscape.
Once a burn, elements such as wind force and firefighters can make the difference between a fire which is quickly muffled and which becomes greater and more intense.
“It is really difficult to find a unique justification to explain why some seasons are so much more intense than others,” said Scott Stephens, professor of fire science and forest policy at the University of California in Berkeley.
The fire seasons of 2020 and 2021 in California, for example, experienced record fires which spread over huge parts of land.
The coming years have been, in comparison, quite tamed, although scientists say that factors such as climate change contributed to the fire seasons that see activity levels above average.
But there are indicators that scientists and fire managers consider clues, such as the prevalence of drought and the level of humidity present in soil and plant life. While many catalysts can trigger a fire, how much it spreads and how unstoppable it becomes is largely a question of fuel, in the form of thick and dry vegetation.
Stephens says that the Chaparral landscape of southern California – characterized by low and wise shrubs – is particularly subject to fire, and he has experienced a “very dry” year.
The American drought instructor indicates that around 23% of the state is currently experiencing conditions ranging from severe drought to exceptional drought, many of these concentrated regions in southern California.
Until now, California’s largest fire, Madre’s fire, has taken place in the county of San Luis Obispo in central California and has reached around 80,000 acres (32,400 hectares), according to the Cal Fire state agency.
This fire is more than 95% content, the term responsible for fires uses to reference the part of a fire effectively surrounded by protection lines built to prevent it from spreading.
Changing policies for emergency management
Political changes are also loomed during this year’s fire season, as reductions in weather forecasts and emergency services under the concern of Trump Administration Spark.
Scientists argue that these services play an essential role by trying to understand each season of fires.
“We are counting a lot on the forecasts modeled for various weather events, and the fire time is certainly an example,” said Moritz. “If these services take a hit, we are all at risk of worst results.”
Since his return to his duties for a second term, Trump has led an effort to reduce the federal government, including by reducing his emergency services and his scientific research.
Earlier this year, for example, the National Weather Service (NWS) lost nearly 600 workers in the reduction of employees led by Trump. The president has since faced criticism after a Flood series In the state of Texas, killed nearly 135 people: democratic legislators blamed the reductions in the endowment to hinder the efforts of forecasting and emergency intervention.
The administration also sought to revise the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which oversees the federal response to the resumption after claim.
Trump had proposed the redistribution of FEMA’s responsibilities towards the governments of states and local. In the meantime, the security secretary of the house of the house of the Kristi Noem would have implemented a policy in June which required that FEMA expenses of more than $ 100,000 be approved by it.
According to criticism, has led to a slowdown in services. Last Monday, CNN announced that Ken Pagurek, the head of research and rescue of FEMA for urban areas, resigned from frustration in the face of bureaucratic obstacles.
Trump himself threatened to suspend assistance to disasters of states like California if they do not align with his immigration policies and other questions. He and his allies blamed the Democrats of Los Angeles forest fire.
“It is one of the worst disasters in the history of our country. They just can’t turn fires. What’s wrong with them? ” Asset wrote in January.
Prevent forest fires outside control
California, however, has sought to implement its own measures to meet the challenges that accompany longer and more intense fire seasons.
These tactics include emphasis on fuel reduction efforts, especially through prescribed burns, in which fire is intentionally introduced into a landscape in controlled circumstances to help slim excess of vegetation.
“The prescribed burns are something that we have certainly encouraged. We do much more than before,” said Jesse Torres, spokesperson for Cal Fire.
He says that such efforts generally take place at the end of spring, after periods of precipitation when wet conditions reduce the risk of a prescribed burn that spreads out of control.
Fire scientists say, however, that the extent of these efforts has not yet reached the necessary levels to have a serious impact on state fire activity.
While Cal Fire has an annual objective of dealing with 500,000 acres (202,300 hectares) of land thanks to fuel reduction efforts, Cal Fire said that it only covered 156,000 acres (63,100 hectares) during the current financial year, although it expects this figure to increase.
“There is still a lack of sufficient burning and slimming efforts,” said Stephens. “If the forests were more resilient, the impact of these fires would be less extreme.”
