What to expect when (or if) Elon Musk launches a Tesla Robotaxi service

Tesla CEO Elon Musk promises autonomous cars for a decade, and the moment of truth could finally be there.

Musk, who is mainly back in the private sector after his Chain saw turn In the Trump administration, Tesla was planning to launch a Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas on Sunday. Although he said that the exact day could still change, Tesla seems to be closer to making an attempt, with Videos in line Road tests where no human is in the driver’s seat.

But Tesla is also from behind. Waymo, a Google spin-off, already manages a Robotaxi service in several cities including Austin, and the service has a growing suite.

Security remains a key question. Musk rejected the idea of ​​using radar and lidar sensors on Tesla vehicles, rather lean on cameras in a departure of certain rivals. He said Robotaxie Tesla uses a “New version of the software“It is relatively not tested.

Federal regulators have aroused concerns about Tesla driver software for over a year, saying that he has contributed to Hundreds of avoidable accidentsincluding some fatal crash.

Waymo’s service has not reported any death.

This is what to expect from the planned service of Tesla.

When will it start?

Musk said this month that the launch of Robotaxi would be, “temporarily, June 22”.

Musk Predicted for years These Tesla autonomous vehicles were just at the corner of the street, to the point where it is go. Musk told Fortune magazine in 2015 that autonomy was two yearsand him said in 2019 That Tesla would have 1 million robotaxis on the roads in 2020.

The Democrats of Texas Wednesday asked Tesla To delay its launch Until September, the date on which a new state law could take effect and require that the operators of Robotaxis obtain a state permit. Tesla did not respond to requests for comments.

Who can use this service?

Very few people, at least to start. Musk said the service will start very small, with as little as 10 vehicles the first week. They will operate in Austin, but Tesla did not tell what size would be her service area. There is no public waiting list, although Musk said he wanted to develop the service in a few months to make up for Waymo.

Friday, some people on Musk’s social media application Published screenshots of what seemed to be invitations to “early access by Tesla Robotaxi”.

Robotaxi services work as a Lyft or Uber Ride-Hail service: a user controls a journey on a telephone application by entering their starting point and their destination. The main difference is that there is no one in the driver’s seat, although it is not clear if Tesla will have someone in the front passenger seat, As he did during the testsOr the quantity of remote control of the car that Tesla aura.

How is it compared with Waymo?

Waymo says his service covers 37 square miles In Austin, and customers can order walks via the Uber application, in a partnership between the two technological companies. Waymo is also available in Los Angeles, Phoenix, San Francisco and Atlanta, with plans to extend to Miami and elsewhere.

Nationally, Waymo says he has 1,500 vehicles on the roadThe more car parks, electric charging stations, maintenance staff and engineers to support vehicles.

“Waymo is by far the leader in technology development here, and in the past 15 years, has evolved both technology and related infrastructure to support what they are doing,” said Bryan Reimer, a researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Transport and Logistics Center.

Tesla calls for her Robotaxi service, but so far, the company has not succeeded Get a brand for the term.

How will Tesla Robotaxis be sure?

Experts say that nobody knows how sure Tesla’s service will be.

“I am happy that they are starting small,” said Greg Stevens, research director of Mcy, a test laboratory for autonomous technology at the University of Michigan.

“As an engineer, I am a real fan of small launches. Stay simple at first: launch a small number of vehicles and look at them very, very closely,” he said.

Phil Koopman, an associate professor of engineering at Carnegie Mellon University, said that only a driving file on tens of millions of kilometers will determine the security of Tesla.

“Success is not accidents and no serious incidents for the rest of the year, at least,” he said. “Safety is not something where you can go watch the car and see it is sure.”

Tesla has a different security approach from that of her main competitor. While Waymo uses a combination of cameras, radar and lidar To keep its bearings, Tesla is based only on cameras. It is an approach that says Musk is cheaper and “superior” Using the Lidar, while federal regulators have said that Tesla cameras May have trouble seeing Under certain conditions such as fog and the flagrant sun.

Musk said That Tesla “is super paranoid on security”. He also said a More advanced version Tesla’s autonomy software “still requires a lot of polishing”.

Can Tesla just do this? Who approved it?

Texas has had relatively permissive laws concerning autonomous vehicles: Unlike CaliforniaThere is no state regulator in Texas which must register on the service. This can change in September, when a Texas Law proposed The obligation of Robotaxie operators obtains the authorization of the department of motor vehicles should take effect. The bill adopted the State House and the Senate and Wait for the action by the republican governor Greg Abbott.

If Tesla launches on Sunday and Abbott signs the bill, it is not clear what would happen under the new law this fall. A spokesperson for Texas Department of Motor Vehicles said on Friday that the ministry would need time to put the law into force and start the application, a process that would most likely extend next year.

Managers of the City of Austin also say that they are prohibited under the law of the State to regulate autonomous vehicles, but they have documented examples of security problems. In the first five months of this year, the city said it had collected data on 35 security incidentsLike block traffic, involving various companies.

Austin officials said on Friday, they had not documented any security incident involving Tesla autonomous vehicles.

“The city deals with each AV company that expresses interest in Austin in the same way, offering training opportunities and providing information on the city’s grip and procedure,” said Jack Flagler, spokesperson for the Austin Transport Department, in an email. He said that the city had provided Tesla and other cards, special information on the event and information on fire and police procedures.

Tesla sought to prevent the city of Austin from publishing government archives on its planned service, According to Reuters.

What’s going on if something is wrong?

Tesla has not publicly expressed any emergency plan, but if rival companies are a guide, Tesla will have the staff ready to help in person or at a distance. Test vehicles identified in Austin were followed by that some people speculate to be “Dragging” vehicles led by humans.

Companies such as Waymo and the now missing cruise say they Can and involve remotely with vehicles if there is a problem – which meant for cruise every 4 to 5 milesAccording to CNBC. Cruise later closed Following a very publicized crash involving a pedestrian.

Tesla has published a job linked to teleoperations and said to Wall Street analysts to expect Telesupport, According to Wired Magazine And Electrek Auto SiteBut the company did not provide details.

The challenges are raised for the entire Robotaxis industry.

“This is my great concern: that all the progress we have made are interrupted by a kind of major security incident,” said Stevens.

How much can Tesla arrive in other cities?

Musk said security and regulations will guide Tesla attend to extend the number of vehicles in the service. He told CNBC in an interview last month: “I think we will probably be a thousand in a few months.” He also mentioned the expansion in California, although Tesla did not The permit required To operate there.

Musk also Hyped a new vehicleCalled Cybercab, which Tesla could potentially use for its Robotaxi service, but for the moment the company uses existing model vehicles. And finally, Musk said that Tesla’s individual owners would be able to offer their vehicle to hire in the Robotaxi service, but he did not set a date for this.

“How long did we take Waymo to develop? Years and years and years. And there is no reason to believe that it will be different for Tesla,” Koopman said.

What will be the impact on Tesla as a business be?

The planned launch of the Robotaxi service has contributed to putting the course of Tesla’s action in recent months, after the company Cratered sales and benefits During musk time in the Trump administration and Protests of “Tesla Takedown” which against him and the company. Some investors think that Tesla will be able to Evolve its service quickly For dozens of cities in the next year, creating a new source of income while also increasing vehicle sales.

Some experts believe that this is the main point of the launch of Robotaxi.

“I think the objective that is essential is to stabilize the course of Tesla’s action,” said MIT. “It is as much a blow from the media as anything else.”