Why hit Iran’s nuclear sites is such a difficult feat

Key points

• The White House officials said NBC News on Tuesday that US President Donald Trump was considering a range of options, including Iran’s strike.
• Destroying the nuclear program of Iran – that Tehran affirms is for civil energy purposes – is not an easy task.
• The most advanced and hardened nuclear installation in Iran, the Fordo factory in the northwest of the country, is a fortress.

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Dubai, the United Arab Emirates – Iran looks at the possibility of seeing its most important nuclear installations hit by a American bomb of 30,000 pounds.

The White House officials said NBC News on Tuesday that US President Donald Trump was considering a range of options, including Iran’s strike directly, after the American chief said on several occasions that his administration would not allow Iran to continue his nuclear program or to reach the manufacturing capacity of bombs.

Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and wrote in an article on Social Truth that the United States has the capacity to assassinate the supreme Iranian chief of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“It is an easy target, but it is sure there – we are not going to take it out (kill!), At least not for the moment,” wrote Trump shortly after declaring the “total control” on Iranian airspace.

Khamenei replied on Wednesday, threatening the United States with “irreparable damage” if Washington follows a military strike. “The damage they undergo will be much worse than all that Iran could be confronted. If they come militarily, they will harm which they cannot recover,” said the Iranian chief, according to NBC News Reporting.

The conflict growing quickly, triggered by Israel’s surprise attacks On the Iranian military and nuclear installations on June 13, raised oil prices and put a region on board. Initially encouraging diplomatic talks with Tehran, Trump’s statements have become increasingly threatening as populations through the Middle East Habbing for what comes next.

But Destroy Iran’s nuclear program – that Tehran affirms is for civil energy purposes only – is not an easy task.

The most advanced and hardened nuclear installation in Iran, the Fordo factory in the northwest of the country, is a fortress.

Built inside a mountain at around 300 feet underground and reinforced by layers of concrete, the plant – which is the most likely target of a potential American strike – is impenetrable by any bomb except the massive GBU -57 (MOP). The United States is the only country in the world to have this “Bunker Buster” weapon, as well as the only country with the plane capable of transporting it and deploying it: the stealth bomber B2 Spirit.

This is partly why Israel was so impatient for participation in the United States in its offensive operations against Iran in addition to its defensives.

But a strike in itself would not be a unique work, according to military experts.

“So you have two challenges. You will have to drop two of these penetrators on the same site exactly “and you probably need several bombings, according to David des Roches, professor and military scholarship holder in the Middle East Southeast Asia for strategic studies at the National Defense University in Washington, DC

“And then you are never precisely safe from the establishment you have damaged,” he added, which means that the staff can be deployed in the field.

“It brings me to believe that for these installations, Israel will finally take control of the air, then land forces on the ground, will make their way in the installation by exploding the doors, then in an appointment to place explosive loads, by exfiltrating all the intelligences they can obtain, and by simply detonating it from the inside,” said rocks at CNBC.

Wider war for America?

Iran’s military capacities have been seriously degraded in recent days by Israeli attacks, which have withdrawn substantial parts from its air defenses, ballistic missile batteries, command and control nodes and dozens of higher commanders.

However, such a strike in the United States could trigger Iran to react by hitting American assets in the region such as embassies and military bases. Trump clearly said that any attack on American staff would attract a fierce American response, which would then lead the most powerful army in the world in a regional conflict.

“The Iranians reported that they were ready to attack the American bases in the region in the event of an American attack on their domestic soil,” said Gregory Brew, main analyst on Iran and energy at risk of Eurasia Group, noting that the American bases in Iraq are particularly vulnerable.

“There are risks in this environment that Iranian reprisals make American victims, kills the American soldiers and potentially obliges President Trump to extend the scope of the American action and to command additional strikes on Iran and that, of course, would threaten general climbing and would lead us not only to a single operation, but also to a general air campaign.”

Despite its enormous scale, the Bunker Buster GPU-57 would not create large-scale damage beyond the installation area, said rocks. But that would have a “deep psychological effect on Iranians”, he added, who has already experienced significant damage and a risk of radioactive contamination formulated to the infrastructure of several of their nuclear sites in other parts of the country.

Another critical question remains whether the Trump administration will be limited to targeting nuclear sites, or if it will extend operations beyond – something from the Israeli government has also urged, because it transmits its desire to see the change of regime for its long -standing opponent.

“I think that the conflict will end when Israel is convinced that Iran has lost, for an important period, the ability to make a nuclear weapon and that its defenses are sufficiently weakened so that Israel can go back and effectively disturb any additional effort of Iran to make a nuclear weapon,” said rocks.

If Fordo remains operational, Israel’s attacks would barely slow Iran’s ability to build a bomb, according to nuclear analysts. The decisions of the House of Time in the coming days will therefore prove to be decisive not only for the trajectory of the Iranian nuclear program, but for the survival of the Islamic Republic regime as a whole.

Ali Vaez, Iranian project director of the non-profit crisis group, believes that “Iran can survive and rebuild its nuclear program”, even without a diplomatic avenue for an agreement with the United States

“The United States entering the war will close the door of diplomacy,” Vaez told CNBC. “Trump could be able to destroy Fordow, but he will not be able to bomb the knowledge that Iran has already acquired.”